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EIA:全球石油市场比预期更早接近平衡
时间:2020-06-28 02:41 点击次数:

中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil Gas Journal网站6月9日消息 美国能源信息署(EIA)在6月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中表示,全球石油需求的更快复苏和全球石油产量的急剧下降,正使市场比一个月前的预测更早接近平衡。

布伦特原油期货价格于2020年6月4日收于39.99美元/桶,较2020年5月1日上涨13.55美元/桶。同期,俄克拉荷马州库欣市交割的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格上涨17.63美元/桶,6月4日收于37.41美元/桶。

几个因素可能为原油价格提供了支撑。初步的石油消费数据和主要石油生产商的额外努力表明,全球石油市场的供过于求并没有EIA在5月STEO中预测的那么严重。随着美国和经济合作与发展组织成员国开始从封锁状态重新开放,石油消费的早期指标显示,石油消费量较4月份的低水平有所增加。

EIA估计,5月份全球石油和其他液体燃料的平均消费量为8290万桶/日,比4月份的消费量增加370万桶/日,比5月份STEO的预测多290万桶/日。

此外,由于欧佩克+成员国自愿减产,以及美国致密油产量迅速下降,全球石油产量一直在下降。

EIA对5月份全球液体燃料供应的估计比上月STEO的预测低50万桶/日。除了欧佩克+最初总计970万桶/日的减产之外,沙特、科威特和阿联酋宣布,在最初承诺的基础上,在2020年6月额外减产约120万桶/日。部分基于这些削减,EIA已将6月份全球石油液体供应预测较上月下调220万桶/日。

EIA在6月6日OPEC+宣布将从5月和6月延长减产至7月之前完成了这一预测。在做出这一决定之前,有关扩大生产管理的谈判促成了原油价格的上涨。这一举措并没有反映出5月和6月削减计划的延期。

EIA目前预计,2020年下半年布伦特原油月均价将达到37美元/桶,2021年将升至48美元/桶。

原油价格上涨的预测反映了2020年下半年至2021年全球石油库存的预期下降。EIA预计,未来几个月库存水平高企,原油生产能力闲置,将限制价格上涨压力,但随着库存下降至2021年,这些价格上涨压力将加大。

The faster recovery of global oil demand and steeper declines in global oil production are bringing markets closer to balance sooner than the forecasts a month ago, the US Energy Information Administration said in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil settled at $39.99/bbl on June 4, 2020, an increase of $13.55/bbl from May 1, 2020. The front-month futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Okla., increased by $17.63/bbl during the same period, settling at $37.41/bbl on June 4.

“Several factors likely provided support to crude oil prices. Initial oil consumption data and additional efforts by major oil producers indicate that the oversupply in global oil markets has not been as severe as EIA had forecast in the May STEO. As US states and countries in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began to reopen from lockdown, early indicators of petroleum consumption have shown increases from the low April levels,” EIA said.

EIA estimates that the global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels averaged 82.9 million b/d in May, up 3.7 million b/d from April consumption and 2.9 million b/d more than forecast in the May STEO.

In addition, global oil production has been declining as a result of voluntary production cuts from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+), as well as from rapid declines in tight oil production in the US.

EIA’s estimate of global liquid fuels supply in May is 500,000 b/d lower than forecast in last month’s STEO. In addition to OPEC+’s initial production cuts—totaling 9.7 million b/d—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE announced additional reductions of about 1.2 million b/d for June 2020 beyond their initial commitments. Partly based on these cuts, EIA has revised down the forecast for supply of petroleum liquids globally during June by 2.2 million b/d compared with last month’s forecast.

EIA completed this forecast before OPEC+ announced on June 6 that it would extend production cuts from May and June through July. Leading up to this decision, talks of extended production management contributed to higher crude oil prices. This STEO does not reflect an extension of the May and June cuts.

EIA now expects monthly Brent prices will average $37/bbl during the second half of 2020 and rise to an average of $48/bbl in 2021.

The forecast of rising crude oil prices reflects expected declines in global oil inventories during the second half of 2020 and through 2021. EIA expects high inventory levels and spare crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase.

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