中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil Gas Journal网站6月9日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）在6月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中表示，全球石油需求的更快复苏和全球石油产量的急剧下降，正使市场比一个月前的预测更早接近平衡。
The faster recovery of global oil demand and steeper declines in global oil production are bringing markets closer to balance sooner than the forecasts a month ago, the US Energy Information Administration said in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil settled at $39.99/bbl on June 4, 2020, an increase of $13.55/bbl from May 1, 2020. The front-month futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Okla., increased by $17.63/bbl during the same period, settling at $37.41/bbl on June 4.
“Several factors likely provided support to crude oil prices. Initial oil consumption data and additional efforts by major oil producers indicate that the oversupply in global oil markets has not been as severe as EIA had forecast in the May STEO. As US states and countries in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began to reopen from lockdown, early indicators of petroleum consumption have shown increases from the low April levels,” EIA said.
EIA estimates that the global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels averaged 82.9 million b/d in May, up 3.7 million b/d from April consumption and 2.9 million b/d more than forecast in the May STEO.
In addition, global oil production has been declining as a result of voluntary production cuts from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+), as well as from rapid declines in tight oil production in the US.
EIA’s estimate of global liquid fuels supply in May is 500,000 b/d lower than forecast in last month’s STEO. In addition to OPEC+’s initial production cuts—totaling 9.7 million b/d—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE announced additional reductions of about 1.2 million b/d for June 2020 beyond their initial commitments. Partly based on these cuts, EIA has revised down the forecast for supply of petroleum liquids globally during June by 2.2 million b/d compared with last month’s forecast.
EIA completed this forecast before OPEC+ announced on June 6 that it would extend production cuts from May and June through July. Leading up to this decision, talks of extended production management contributed to higher crude oil prices. This STEO does not reflect an extension of the May and June cuts.
EIA now expects monthly Brent prices will average $37/bbl during the second half of 2020 and rise to an average of $48/bbl in 2021.
The forecast of rising crude oil prices reflects expected declines in global oil inventories during the second half of 2020 and through 2021. EIA expects high inventory levels and spare crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase.
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